Recession may have pushed US birth rate to new low

By MARILYNN MARCHIONE, AP (article)

news-general-20100827-US.MED.Birth.Decline

Graphic shows number of births in the U.S. since 1930.

The U.S. birth rate has dropped for the second year in a row, and experts think the wrenching recession led many people to put off having children. The 2009 birth rate also set a record: lowest in a century.

Births fell 2.7 percent last year even as the population grew, numbers released Friday by the National Center for Health Statistics show.

"It's a good-sized decline for one year. Every month is showing a decline from the year before," said Stephanie Ventura, the demographer who oversaw the report.

The birth rate, which takes into account changes in the population, fell to 13.5 births for every 1,000 people last year. That's down from 14.3 in 2007 and way down from 30 in 1909, when it was common for people to have big families.

"It doesn't matter how you look at it — fertility has declined," Ventura said.

The situation is a striking turnabout from 2007, when more babies were born in the United States than any other year in the nation's history. The recession began that fall, dragging stocks, jobs and births down.

"When the economy is bad and people are uncomfortable about their financial future, they tend to postpone having children. We saw that in the Great Depression the 1930s and we're seeing that in the Great Recession today," said Andrew Cherlin, a sociology professor at Johns Hopkins University.

"It could take a few years to turn this around," he added, noting that the birth rate stayed low throughout the 1930s.

Another possible factor in the drop: a decline in immigration to the United States.

The downward trend invites worrisome comparisons to Japan and its lost decade of choked growth in the 1990s and very low birth rates. Births in Japan fell 2 percent in 2009 after a slight rise in 2008, its government has said.

Not so in Britain, where the population took its biggest jump in almost half a century last year and the fertility rate is at its highest level since 1973. France's birth rate also has been rising; Germany's birth rate is lower but rising as well.

"Our birth rate is still higher than the birth rate in many wealthy countries and we also have many immigrants entering the country. So we do not need to be worried yet about a birth dearth" that would crimp the nation's ability to take care of its growing elderly population, Cherlin said.

The new U.S. report is a rough count of births from states. It estimates there were 4,136,000 births in 2009, down from 4,251,095 in 2008 and more than 4.3 million in 2007.

The report does not give details on trends in different age groups. That will come next spring and will give a clearer picture who is and is not having children, Ventura said.

Last spring's report, on births in 2008, showed an overall drop but a surprising rise in births to women over 40, who may have felt they were running out of time to have children and didn't want to delay despite the bad economy.

Women postponing having children because of careers also may find they have trouble conceiving, said Mark Mather of the Population Reference Bureau, a Washington-based demographic research group.

"For some of those women, they're going to find themselves in their mid-40s where it's going to be hard to have the number of children they want," he said.

Heather Atherton is nearing that mark. The Sacramento, Calif., mom, who turns 36 next month, started a home-based public relations business after having a baby girl in 2003. She and her husband upgraded to a larger home in 2005 and planned on having a second child not long afterward. Then the recession hit, drying up her husband's sales commissions and leaving them owing more on their home than it is worth. A second child seemed too risky financially.

"However, we just recently decided that it's time to stop waiting and just go for it early next year and let the chips fall where they may," she said. "We can't allow the recession to dictate the size of our family. We just need to move forward with our lives."

July 2010

Labor Force[i]

The unemployment rate (not seasonally adjusted) decreased in 50 of Colorado’s 64 counties, increased in 11 and was unchanged in 3. The lowest rate was 2.5 percent in Hinsdale County and the highest was 14.2 percent in Dolores County. In July 2009, the unemployment rate declined in 63 counties and remained unchanged in one. Last year, the lowest rate was 2.5 percent in Hinsdale County and the highest was 13.1 percent in Dolores County.

The number of working Coloradans decreased 7,400 over the month to 2,442,300. The civilian labor force declined 6,800 to 2,655,600. The number of residents unsuccessfully looking for work increased 600 over the month to 213,300. One year ago, total employment was 2,484,900 and the number of unemployed was 219,900. The civilian labor force has declined 49,200 since July 2009.

Wage and Salary Employment[ii]

The monthly survey of Colorado business establishments indicates the number of nonfarm wage and salary jobs increased 1,900 in July to 2,205,300.

Employment increased in five of Colorado’s eleven major industry sectors over the month. Leisure and hospitality employment increased 3,100 in July. Education and health services added 1,800 jobs. Trade, transportation and utilities gained 1,300 jobs, information 400, and mining and logging 100. Construction employment declined 1,800. Government and professional and business services each declined 800. Other services and manufacturing each declined 500, and financial activities decreased 400.

Nonfarm payroll employment decreased 1.1 percent over the year, or 25,200, from the July 2009 level of 2,230,500.

Employment in four of Colorado’s eleven major industry sectors increased over the year. Employment in education and health services increased 6,600, government 3,500, other services 600 and leisure and hospitality 200. The remaining seven industry sectors declined over the year. Construction, down 17,400, experienced the largest decline of all industry sectors. Manufacturing declined 4,600, professional and business services 3,800, and trade, transportation and utilities 3,600. Other losses included information (3,200), financial activities (2,700), and mining and logging (800).

National[iii]

The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the unemployment rate held steady at 9.5 percent in July. Nonfarm payroll employment declined 131,000, reflecting a reduction of 143,000 temporary employees working on Census 2010. Private-sector payroll employment increased 71,000 due to increases in manufacturing and health care. Private sector payroll employment has increased by 630,000 in 2010.

[i] Labor force estimates are calculated from the household survey results, using the Bureau of Labor Statistics Local Area Unemployment Statistics methods. The unadjusted statewide and county level estimates are available at the following link: http://lmigateway.coworkforce.com/lmigateway/gsipub/index.asp?docid=363

[ii] Wage and salary employment estimates are calculated from the establishment survey results, using the Bureau of Labor Statistics Current Employment Statistics methods. The statewide adjusted and unadjusted, and the unadjusted MSA estimates are available at the following link:

http://lmigateway.coworkforce.com/lmigateway/gsipub/index.asp?docid=364

[iii] The Bureau of Labor Statistics homepage is available at the following link: http://www.bls.gov/

Recession may have pushed US birth rate to new low

By MARILYNN MARCHIONE, AP (article)

PRESS RELEASE

July 2010